America Doesn’t Understand Iran And It Shows (with Danny Citrinowicz)
Decapitation strikes in Iran, a new Supreme Leader — and a nuclear endgame debate.
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A NOTE FROM THE PRODUCER
Jennifer Indig is the Lead Editorial Producer for The Long Game podcast
In this week’s episode of The Long Game, Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer are joined by Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz — senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and former head of the Iran branch in Israeli Defense Intelligence — for a sober assessment of where the war with Iran stands following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Danny offers a blunt sitrep from Israel: what has been accomplished militarily, what remains unresolved, and why the strategic picture may be more complicated than it appears. In his view, decapitating Khamenei may have removed the very figure most responsible for keeping Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold, and could now push Tehran “beyond the Rubicon.” With Iran’s technical know-how intact and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium believed to be stored in tunnels under Isfahan, Danny argues the postwar reality may be an Iran more motivated — and better positioned — to pursue a bomb.
The conversation explores the emerging leadership dynamic in Iran, the resilience of the regime, and whether U.S. and Israeli objectives remain aligned as the conflict evolves. Jake and Jon press Danny on escalation risks, the role of regional actors, and what Washington misunderstands about Iran’s risk calculus..
In the final segment, Jake and Jon run a Red Team/Blue Team exercise on the most consequential unresolved question of the war: what to do about Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile in Isfahan. They game out a scenario in which President Trump considers sending forces in to secure or neutralize the material — a mission that could buy time against an Iranian sprint to a bomb, but also one that carries extraordinary operational, political, and escalation risks. It’s a debate about what “victory” actually means — and whether trying to put an exclamation point on this war could end up opening a new chapter of it.
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Transcript here.
REFERENCES AND SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIALS:
Follow Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz on X @citrinowicz
Some Americans understand enough about Iran to know better than to try to use force to create change. What you really want to headline is “Trump and his Clown Car Cabinet Don’t have a Fricken Clue About how to Govern or use Diplomacy. What’s Worse is, They Don’t Care.”
Joe